South Bay May 2026 Market Update: Price Per Square Foot by City

Why Price Per Square Foot Is the Only Metric That Matters

I'm Brenda Vega, your South Bay Realtor with Century 21, and every month I get asked "how's the market?" The honest answer is: depends what you mean. Median price can swing 12% just because a few more big homes sold in one month. It's a terrible apples-to-apples metric. The metric I actually track, and the one I'll hand you for May 2026, is price per square foot. It tells you what buyers are paying for the actual house, stripped of mix effects.

Here's the full city-by-city breakdown for May 2026, based on MLS sold data from April 20 through May 20, single-family homes only, and my own deal flow. Let's go.

Campbell: $1,065/sqft — The Steady Workhorse

Median home sold in Campbell in May: $1.58M. Median sqft: 1,485. Price per sqft: $1,065. Up 3.8% year over year.

Campbell continues to be the South Bay's most reliable market. No dramatic swings up, no dramatic swings down. Downtown Campbell adjacent homes — think Virginia, Budd, Harrison Avenue — are punching above at $1,150-$1,225/sqft. The Cambrian-adjacent western edge sits closer to $990-$1,025/sqft.

Days on market: 12 days. Offer count average: 5.2. My take: Campbell is the tightest supply I'm seeing, and the 2026 story here is that buyers priced out of Los Gatos are bidding Campbell up methodically.

Los Gatos: $1,345/sqft — Softening at the Top

Median sold in Los Gatos in May: $2.65M. Price per sqft: $1,345. That's actually down 1.2% from April and flat year over year.

Here's what's happening in Los Gatos specifically. The $2M-$2.6M band is white-hot — those homes are going in 8 days with 10+ offers. The $3.5M and up band is soft. Sellers who listed in March at aspirational prices are reducing $150K-$300K in May. Inventory above $4M is sitting.

If you're a Los Gatos luxury buyer, this is the first real softening I've seen in 36 months. Don't miss it.

Saratoga: $1,285/sqft — School District Premium Intact

Median sold in Saratoga: $3.18M. Price per sqft: $1,285. Up 2.1% year over year.

Saratoga's story is still schools, schools, schools. The Saratoga Union/Los Gatos-Saratoga High feeder is bulletproof. Homes on the flats — Saratoga-Sunnyvale Road corridor, west of 85 — are actually leading at $1,350/sqft. The hillsides, despite the views, have pulled back slightly on fire insurance concerns and are closer to $1,180/sqft.

Cupertino: $1,485/sqft — The Priciest Per-Foot in the South Bay

Median sold in Cupertino: $2.95M. Price per sqft: $1,485. Up 4.2% year over year.

Cupertino is now officially the most expensive per-square-foot market in the South Bay. Monta Vista High feeder homes are trading at $1,560/sqft. Rancho Rinconada sits around $1,420/sqft. The premium here is nearly 100% about schools and Apple.

Inventory is the tightest I've ever seen in Cupertino — there were 38 single-family listings active at any point in May. For context, Campbell had 72 and Campbell is a quarter the size.

Sunnyvale: $1,195/sqft — Tech Employer Gravity

Median sold in Sunnyvale: $2.21M. Price per sqft: $1,195. Up 3.4% year over year.

Sunnyvale is benefiting from the LinkedIn and Google campus gravity. Homes east of 85, especially in the Ponderosa and Cherry Chase pockets, are commanding $1,250-$1,305/sqft. Older Sunnyvale (Lakewood, Fairwood) is around $1,080-$1,130/sqft.

The sub-$2M single-family market in Sunnyvale has essentially disappeared. If your budget is $1.7M-$1.9M, I'm pushing you to townhomes or the Sunnyvale-Santa Clara border.

Santa Clara: $1,085/sqft — The Value Play

Median sold in Santa Clara: $1.83M. Price per sqft: $1,085. Up 2.7% year over year.

Santa Clara continues to be the underpriced sister to Sunnyvale. Same general commute, same climate, $110/sqft less. The Old Quad near SCU is doing best at $1,180/sqft. The Rivermark condo-adjacent townhomes are holding at $1,020/sqft for single-family.

If you're a buyer under $1.95M with a Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, or North San Jose work target, Santa Clara is where I'd look first.

San Jose: $985/sqft Average (Wildly Neighborhood-Dependent)

San Jose is too big to average meaningfully, so here's the breakout of the pockets I work most:

• Willow Glen: $1,215/sqft, median sold $2.08M
• Almaden Valley: $1,055/sqft, median sold $2.24M
• Rose Garden: $1,165/sqft, median sold $1.94M
• Cambrian Park: $1,095/sqft, median sold $1.72M
• Blossom Valley: $905/sqft, median sold $1.49M
• Santa Teresa: $855/sqft, median sold $1.41M
• Berryessa: $890/sqft, median sold $1.54M
• Downtown/Naglee Park: $835/sqft, median sold $1.38M

The trend within San Jose: western and northern pockets are appreciating faster than southern and eastern pockets. Cambrian Park is the standout — up 6.4% year over year, the fastest of any San Jose neighborhood.

Monte Sereno: $1,520/sqft — Ultra-Luxury Holding Firm

Median sold in Monte Sereno: $4.45M. Price per sqft: $1,520. Up 1.8% year over year.

Only 6 single-family sales in Monte Sereno in May, so the data is thin, but what sold went close to list. Monte Sereno remains the stealth luxury market for buyers who want Los Gatos schools and amenities without the downtown tourist traffic.

The Cross-City Comparison You Actually Need

Here's how to read these numbers as a buyer or seller:

• Cheapest per foot still near jobs: Downtown San Jose ($835), Santa Teresa ($855), Berryessa ($890)
• Best value near top schools: Cambrian Park ($1,095), Santa Clara Old Quad ($1,180), Campbell ($1,065)
• Most expensive per foot: Monte Sereno ($1,520), Cupertino Monta Vista feeder ($1,560 within that pocket), Cupertino overall ($1,485)
• Softening markets (favor buyers): Los Gatos over $3.5M, Saratoga hillsides
• Heating markets (favor sellers): Cambrian Park, Campbell, Cupertino under $3M

Interest Rate and Loan Environment

Conforming 30-year rates in the South Bay on May 20 averaged 6.18%. Jumbo was 6.42%. The Santa Clara County conforming loan limit is $1,149,825 in 2026, which means any home purchased under roughly $1.44M with 20% down is conforming — an important threshold for buyer qualification.

Rates have been stable in the low 6%s for three months. I don't see a big move in either direction before Q3.

What This Means for You

If you're a buyer: Los Gatos over $3.5M is the first softening in the luxury tier I've seen in years. Saratoga hillsides are negotiable. Cambrian Park is still climbing — don't wait there. Santa Clara and Campbell are the best value-for-location plays.

If you're a seller: Anything in Campbell, Cupertino under $3M, Cambrian Park, or Sunnyvale is going to move fast with multiple offers. Price it right, pre-inspect (read my last post), and expect 9-12 days on market. At the luxury tier, pricing discipline matters more than it has in 3 years.

Let's Talk About Your Specific Situation

These numbers are citywide averages. Your home, your street, your school district — those are what actually determine your number. I run deep comp analyses for free for any South Bay homeowner, and I do no-pressure buyer consultations for anyone thinking about jumping in.

If you want to know what your home is really worth in May 2026, or what you should actually be paying in the neighborhood you're eyeing, let's talk. I'm Brenda Vega, and I'll give you the honest numbers. Reach out through brendavegarealty.com.